Update 7/30: Gold prices all time high! – debt ceiling drama.. – US credit rating downgrade? QE3? Real estate prices.

Written by: Joshua Gamen

GOLD

Gold hit an all time high of $1,633.80 per ounce on Friday! Driving up the price is the result of central banks buying gold and coincidentally(sarcasm) the decline in value of the dollar. The drama in the white house regarding the debt ceiling has had quite an impact on the price of gold lately, as has the news that the US can’t keep perfect credit by devaluing it’s current debts from printing more money. But what is really key here, is that the central banks(the people who print pieces of paper that people use as money around the world) are buying gold.

SILVER

Silver has been idling around $40 per ounce this past week or so, and looks to continue it’s descent upwards along with other commodities including oil which is at a price of $95.70 per barrel and approaching $4 per gallon. The increased price in silver, just like gold and oil, is an economic reaction to the depletion of value in the US dollar. This is because value does not leave the planet, it simply transfers between different asset classes. Right now the money is flowing out of the dollar and into gold, silver, oil, real estate, food, etc.

I am holding to my recent prediction of silver hitting $200 per ounce by October 2012. If silver hits $200 per ounce, that would put gold at a price of $8,156 per ounce based on the current ratio of silver to gold at roughly 41 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold. Strong projection, but I’d like to get some talk going on about the subject. With Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently telling Congress they are working on doing more of the same thing(creating debt for free, devaluing the currency, buying back treasury bonds, QE3…) along with the possible default on the US debt, a credit rating downgrade of the US, and rising prices in oil and gold, I think it’s a harsh reality we could face. What it would ultimately mean would be very bad for the poor and middle class, inflation..

Debt CeilingCredit Downgrade

The politics are what they always are, a battle for power.

The reality is, they’ve argued over the debt ceiling being raised for too long and it has already took effect on the credit rating of the country. The reality is that a credit rating downgrade will be just as catastrophic as a default on the debt. The stocks will tank, the dollar will free fall, and gold will surge.

Tho many me be interested to see who wins the heated debate over the hot topic between the Democrats and the GDP, the truth is as Robert “Rich Dad” Kiyosaki puts it: ” that no matter who wins this battle, the war may already be lost—and the American public will be the casualties.”

Like I said, politics are a battle for power –  Here is the fact:

WE HAVE A BIG DET, AND WE CAN’T PAY IT BACK. SO IF WE PILE MORE DEBT ON THAT, WE WON’T BE ABLE TO PAY THAT BACK EITHER. The Credit Rating Agencies know that we can’t pay this debt back, even tho they have took this long to finally admit it. According to the Wall Street Journal:

Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings have all warned they might cut the U.S. credit rating. S&P, in particular, has said it could move even if a debt-reduction deal is met and the $14.29 trillion federal debt ceiling is raised.

S&P has cited $4 trillion in debt reduction as a figure that would be appropriate for keeping the triple-A rating. S&P has also said it wants a credible agreement, meaning one that has bipartisan support.

Neither side is close to a $4 trillion figure. And given the wrangling, the chances of strong bipartisan support for any deal seem unlikely, investors said(“Downgrade Threat Looms”).

..Now, the question shifts from what will happen to what am I going to do now that I know what is happening.

The definition of insure is this: “to guaranty against future loss or harm.”

The US dollar is a commodity. Everything going on right now is sending that commodity to the tank, and since it has no intrinsic value as it’s physical body(paper), it will now stop until it reaches zero. Now, you can have your political beliefs on everything and that’s fine, but you wouldn’t buy a house without insurance, and you wouldn’t drive your car without insurance, so why do you hold your money as a piece of paper with no insurance? Gold and silver are insurance to the dollar.

My point is that it’s not about what I want to be money, right? We all have ideas of what we want or think should be money, it’s about what probably is going to be money.

Real Estate

Meanwhile it remains a perfect storm -a good one 🙂 – to invest in real estate! Prices are still low while sales are high. Most important is that interest rates remain at all time lows, making the oppertunity to leverage and cash flow abundant. We’re getting it done with outstanding returns here in Phoenix, AZ. Give me a call if you are interested in doing some investing – 623-252-3234, let’s talk.

-Joshua

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Competition Towards Disaster

By Joshua Gamen

An article in the Wall Street Journal this last week titled “Fed Officials Mull Inflation as a Fix,” talks about the Fed reversing over 3 decades worth of monetary policy to fix this fragile economy and contribute to a recovery that is not happening like they had hoped for.

*(Monetary Policy is simply the regulation of the money supply and interest rates to control inflation and stabilize interest rates.)

The Fed is hoping that by lifting inflation, they will push “real” interest rates(nominal rates minus inflation) down. This would encourage consumers and businesses to save less and spend or invest more.

SAVING SUCKS

Robert Kiyosaki claims that savers are losers, and what is going on strongly supports his stand on the issue. It is absolutely insane to think that you can get ahead by simply saving dollars when the Fed is willing to speed up the printing presses to get more dollars into circulation, purposefully causing more inflation. As many know, President Nixon took the US off of the gold standard in 1971, severing the tie of our dollar to the gold standard. So for over 3 decades, the Fed has tried to keep inflation low. More dollars in circulation means the value per dollar in the existing supply goes down.

The point that the Fed is even considering inflation as an economic fix shows that they have given up on the dollar. And the world is catching on.(See value of precious metals vs value of US dollar.)

Last week, the dollar dropped to a 15-year low against the Yen. Investors on Wall Street are betting on the Yen, believing that the Fed will sacrifice our dollar to help economic growth.(Shown by a 72% increase on pro-yen votes.)

WHY WOULD THEY DO THIS?!?!?!

By weakening our dollar through inflation, US exports would become cheaper, creating export-lead growth. The dilemma with this is that EVERY nation is looking for export-lead growth, and they too, are willing to sacrifice their currencies to make it happen. China is keeping theirs artificially depressed to try and stay ahead in export wars. Thus, the US is trying to get China to let their currency appreciate, and trying to get the IMF(International Monetary Fund) to rally behind them on this. This competition is causing a race by the currencies towards disaster.

SO…????

My point is that the dollar is EXTREMELY dangerous now. All I hear is people talking about ways to cut back to save more. This is touted as a “responsible” economic strategy. The known financial voices are cheering that the people are being “wise with their money again.”(How’s that working out for anyone?…. :\ ..

I am saying this – Saving dollars is not smart. Financially, it’s actually quite ignorant. If you think saving dollars is a good idea, you are ignoring the fact that the Fed is doing everything they can to make the dollar weaker – by raising inflation in hopes of stimulating growth to the economy, and push us all into more debt.

(I know I am getting to get a lot of arguments on this here, so do your research and verify with facts what I am saying.)

GOOD DEBT VS BAD DEBT

Debt is money’s reality these days. Our economy only grows now if you and I are spending more, and more, and more. It is actually the interest on our loans that the ultra-rich are now after. (They already have everything else from us.)

Debt can, however, be good OR bad.  Good debt puts money in your pocket, bad debt is money that takes more money out of your pocket. (IE: Going into debt using leverage to buy an asset like rental property which puts money in your pocket after paying the mortgage, taxes, management, and maintenance is good debt. The tenant pays the debt down, and you get the asset, plus a little(or a lot) of spending money each month. Plus, you get the appreciation(If there is any). Bad debt would be taking out a credit card to take a vacation. This only takes money out of your pocket, and for a long time.(Thanks to interest payments.)

GOOD NEWS

There is always a good perspective that can be sought out. With all of this stuff going on, there is an abundance of opportunity. With all of the depreciation that is going on, there is a huge opportunity to acquire assets(something that puts money in your pocket) at rock bottom prices. This won’t last forever. The Fed will find a way to create inflation(sounds like they’re already working on this). When inflation hits(and it’s inevitable), savers will become losers and debtors will win.